A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
